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Free workshop 'Can you really trust your models?' - The role of heat networks in delivering 2050 carbon targets

 9 August 2012

Venue: One Birdcage Walk at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers.
One Birdcage Walk, Westminster, London, SW1H 9JJ (directions)
Date: Wednesday 29th August 2012
Time: 9.30 – 12.30 and 14.00-17.00
Click here to REGISTER
Low grade heat rejected in electricity generation:        240,000TWh 
Heat supply to the domestic sector from natural gas:  230,000TWh 
About the workshop
One of the greatest energy challenges we face as a society is the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from heat supply. There is much focus on electricity generation, but electricity comprises less than 30% of our overall energy demand, significantly less than the heat demand (over 35%). Effective modelling of the cost of upgrading the waste heat for heat networks is essential. Current models generally ignore the dynamic nature of networks and marginal and locational effects and use fixed average CO2 emission factors without accounting for global variation. This workshop will explain the fundamentals of network modelling techniques and review existing models by way of comparison.
Through interaction between a range of experts and newcomers to the field, the workshop will catalyse thinking about UK policy on heat network infrastructure as the flexible backbone for sustainable heating in urban areas. It should demonstrate that heat networks with CHP can be a relatively benign way to stimulate our economy and meet our 2050 targets.
The morning session will focus on technical and commercial modelling; the afternoon session will focus on engagement with stakeholders and mechanisms for delivery.
About the host
William R H Orchard MA (Oxon) MBA CEng FIMechE MCIBSE MIET FEI, Managing Director of Orchard Partners London Ltd will lead the event. National energy policy work with IC-consult, FES/AEA, London Economics, Tebodin, ERM, and Power Planning Associates led him to   identify severe limitations in a number of models for CHP, such as WASP and Markal. As the Combined Heat and Power Association’s first chairperson, and through advising the Select Committee on Energy, the challenges low CO2 heat networks face in displacing incumbent high CO2 domestic gas and electric heating became apparent. Co- authorship of BSRIA guides on CHP and variable flow heat networks came from experience of upgrading heat networks for large estates and buildings.  A paper to the 11th International Association of Energy Economists European conference in Vilnius outlines analytical methods. Clean Heat Provision Ltd is William’s business developing and patenting product, to deliver savings and reduce costs for new UK heat infrastructure. “Exergenius” is one product development. 
Morning Session.
The foundation for the workshop will be set by explaining the principles of energy modelling, covering: primary energy, delivered energy, exergy and energy quality, CO2 overhead, the first and second laws of thermodynamics and how to model biomass as a constrained resource.
The workshop will then address the following key topics to demonstrate network modelling:
  • Marginal and average losses of heat and electricity networks, why heat networks can be cleaner. Time slice and location issues, difficulty of modelling least cost peak demand capacity.
  • How even coal fired CHP can decarbonise heat sectors fed by CCGT and gas boilers.
  • Why nuclear CHP might minimise nuclear capacity when decarbonising UK PLC.
  • Modelling the marginal fuel burn, marginal cost, and CO2 overhead, as well as peak demand and location effects, to optimise low CO2 heat supply networks and generators.
  • How to strike a balance between CHP and building fabric improvements (e.g. insulation).
  • CHP as a virtual electric heat pump, but with superior performance COP 8-14 compared to 3-4 (led by Professor Bob Lowe of University College London) with implications on the current EU policy of renewable status for heat from electric heat pumps but not heat from CHP.
The advantages of the “Orchard Convention” for modelling CHP in arriving at the “right decisions” on heat supply will be presented, as compared to other models such as Dukes, CHPQA, Markal/Times, Mott McDonald, EU Directive, and EU Exergy methods.
Discussion on the morning session will be introduced by David Andrews from the EU Research Centre in Petten. We are inviting other experts such as Dr Mark Barratt and Grantham institute researchers to add their experience of modelling heat and electricity networks to the discussion.
Afternoon Session.
The afternoon session will cover initially the following topics on engagement and delivery:
  • David Cameron’s Big Society- can heat networks be David’s opportunity?
  • Can consumers become partners in new heat networks?
  • Can a Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) structure be used to form a new cooperative utility to avoid the need for regulation of a common carrier heat by OFGEM?
  • Why domestic sector heat loads are likely to be the most attractive loads for infrastructure investors.
  • How an LLP structure can de-risk its development.
These topics will lead to an Open Discussion Session on ways to develop heat networks.
This will then be followed be a practical session on “Proposals for conversion of domestic sector to low temperature heat networks”. This will cover:
  • Technical findings on proposals for low temperature (75C) heat networks compatible with waste heat from CHP, electric or engine driven heat pumps, or solar thermal.
  • Retrofitting to condensing CHP our domestic sector in built up areas, currently heated mainly by gas boilers and radiators (this will be tabled for discussion).
  • Challenging the practicality and cost projections of an all-electric individual dwelling heat pump scenario for retrofitting urban areas proposing a more flexible solution.
  • Installing dual fuel CHP needed to meet peak electricity loads in 2050 on the low voltage side of numerous 500kVA transformers to supply heat and electricity to clusters of dwellings and location for EV battery exchange.
  • The integration of electric transport solutions, thermal storage and large scale heat pumps with heat/electricity networks. Retention of gas for cooking versus electric induction hobs.
  • Heat exchange or direct connection? Domestic hot water storage or instantaneous water heating? Reuse current piping and heat emitters or new?
  • Circuits for condensing CHP. The Bodle Orchard circuits, developed under our Ecostiler funded demonstration CHP project, allow domestic heating to be served from condensing CHP. These will be tabled for engineers and designers with conclusions from our Ecostiler conference “So you think your boilers are condensing”.
Catering: Tea and coffee will be provided in the morning, with soft drinks available throughout the day. We are offering an optional lunch package at £15 per person for a finger food selection. If you would like to take advantage of the lunch offer please indicate this when you register, together with your dietary preference.

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